ShareThisWinter Recreation Takes a Hit: Business Risks of Climate Change
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Feb 12, 2011: We left excited for a weekend in the snow and headed up to the Cooper Spur area on Mount Hood. Arriving at the trailhead, typically under several feet of snow this time of year, we found patches of bare ground. As we were planning to spend the night at the Tilly Jane cabin, we had a sled full of gear – expecting it would be much easier to haul our gear in a sled on the snow, than carry it on our back. Unfortunately, the sled turned out to be more of a burden than an aid as we had to carry the sled for about half a mile where there simply wasn’t enough snow – bare ground, rocks and fallen trees. I’ve been traveling this trail every year over the last 19 years, and while the snow isn’t always the light fluffy stuff you dream about, I’ve never had to take my skis off and walk the trail due to an absolute absence of snow.
So how exactly does my disappointing weekend snow trip illuminate business risks? Well, right next to the trailhead is the Cooper Spur Mountain Resort, which typically offers skiing, snowboarding and tubing runs for family recreation. The resort is closed right now, due to insufficient snow – and this is an increasingly common state of affairs. The general trend is that over the long term, snow fall and snow pack have been falling. As I work on climate change issues, I know exactly why this is happening, but the issues of climate change aren’t simple and can be difficult to communicate (see my colleague’s blog).
Matt from Cooper Spur Mountain Resort says: “people are aware that things are different, they are aware of what's happening in terms of lower snow fall and lower snowpack, however, they aren't making the connection to climate change.” Cooper Spur Mountain Resort is at approximately 3700 feet in elevation. The nearest weather station, also on Mount Hood, is at Government Camp at 3980 feet and data show the 30 year average snowfall from 1951 to 1980 was 307 inches, while the 30 year average for 1981-2010 was only 234 inches. That’s a whopping 24% drop in snowfall (you can see the raw data at the Western Regional Climate Center website, a project of the Desert Research Institute, the environmental research arm of the Nevada System of Higher Education: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMONtsnf.pl?or3402).
The ski industry is very aware of how climate change is affecting their industry, and the significant risks it poses to snow sports. Dave Trahathon, the Marketing Manager for Mount Hood Meadows and Cooper Spur Mountain Resort, notes that the snow sports sector is the first to be deeply affected by climate change. In fact, he calls the ski industry “the canary in the coal mine.” Efforts have been underway to bring these concerns to light for over a decade – and Mount Hood Meadows is a charter member of the National Ski Areas Association’s “Sustainable Slopes” initiative which was launched in 2000 and identifies climate change as a potential threat to the environment and to ski industry business.
Specific Risks: Let’s look at some examples of specific risks – of course there are shorter ski seasons (as a result of lower snowfall and snowpack), affecting revenues. There is also the risk associated with marketing snow sports as a life-long recreational pursuit (as opposed, to say, high school wrestling), when actually there is uncertainty over the long term future of the industry. There are risks associated with the significant investment (several million dollars) for each ski lift, which in many cases are located U.S. Forest Service land for which the operators hold long-term leases. However, with reduced snowfall and snowpack, there is uncertainty regarding the long term viability of certain lift locations.
The business risks associated with lower snowpack and snowfall aren’t just limited to the snows ports industry – the agricultural industry is also threatened. Dr. Anne Nolin from OSU has been studying how much water comes from the glacier and snowpack and what the impact is of shrinking glaciers. The glaciers on Mount Hood have shrunk between 15 and 61% between 1907 and 2004 (see diagram and photos of shrinking glaciers below). Almost 75% of the middle fork of the Hood River comes from melting glaciers and provides water for irrigation in the Hood River valley. In 2002 this water supported 14,000 acres of fruits and berries worth $56 million and this agricultural output is at risk with reduced water availability. These are just two of many examples in the backyard of Portland, Oregon, of business risks associated with climate change.
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White River Glacier 1902 White River glacier 2001
(photos courtesy of Bill Bradbury)
Of course, we must remember that climate change represents changes in long term trends, but does not equate to weather (what’s happening today). So despite the long term trend of reduced average snowfall and snowpack each season (see the 30 year trends above), right now the mountain is getting dumped on. So that’s where I’m headed this weekend – the opportunities for fresh snow are becoming increasingly rare as each season goes by. Enjoy it while you can!
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